Right now the Boston Celtics and the Orlando Magic are the two leaders in 3-point “defense,” meaning their defensive statistics look better than they should. Thus, it’s important early in the season to identify outliers because history suggests regression to the mean will be at play. I’ve talked about this issue a lot, but teams do not have much control over shots behind the 3-point line, mostly because those are open shots.
Your regularly scheduled 3-point defense reminder Their voodoo won’t last forever, but for now it’s still working - they’re playing winning basketball without their MVP candidate, Kawhi Leonard, and they’ll once again be one of the best teams in the league. I’ve talked about this before, but it’s all the more apparent now. And they’ve gone after older rookies as we all obsess about the age curves of kids who can’t even buy alcohol. They loaded up on size as everyone is downsizing. They snatched up mi-drange shooters, like LaMarcus Aldridge, as everyone else has been preparing for a 3-point only future. The Spurs have been zagging while everyone else is zigging. But their core players and coaching has been so excellent it’s hard to see any kinks anyway. Many people have been waiting for the other shoe to drop because they’ve been making the types of moves we see from lesser organizations, tying up Pau Gasol and his statue-esque defense for more years, letting younger valuable defenders leave on good deals, and bringing in Rudy “the decision every team has tried and later regretted” Gay. They had a hiccup against the Magic, but otherwise it’s still the same precision offense with a no-mistake defense that should net them 50-plus wins. Rudy Gay and the zagging SpursĪfter a curious offseason that I criticized, the Spurs, like always, are looking fine. I would just temper expectations on how good they can be, unless Thomas returns as good as ever and they figure out their rotation problems. This is not a league average offense, and they should improve. Smith’s shooting percentages will return to their historic means. Additionally, I don’t think Jae Crowder will continue to play this poorly, and one of these days J.R. They were going to be worse during the first half of the season anyway - it’s all about how healthy he’ll be when he returns. On a positive note, remember that they swapped All-Star point guards, and Isaiah Thomas has yet to play. I’d also say projection systems using RPM overrate Cleveland for the regular season because LeBron has been so much better in the post-season, and RPM is one of the few metrics that includes that data. First of all, I did not like Cleveland going into the season because they projected to give a lot of minutes to negative players and many who are poor fits - Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade and Jeff Green. I have a good news/bad news dichotomy for an answer here.
Their team, outside of LeBron, is looking downright weak. They’ve lost games against the Pelicans, Nets, and Knicks. Is it time to panic? For the Cavaliers, doubts are starting to pile up, and fans are beginning to legitimately worry that LeBron James will leave them soon for greener pastures. And with that, let’s take a look back at the last week in basketball with a more objective, stats-focused eye. There’s a lot of the season we still have not covered, and it looks like it’s going to be a lot more than “yet another Warriors title”. With the second week of the NBA logged into the books, we’re starting to see the real form of the season, and some of the odd blips are starting to solidify, from the MVP performances of Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Rookie of the Year campaign for Ben Simmons.